There’s no question that weather across the United States has been a wild rollercoaster ride. Whether its severe hail, extreme winds, or tornado touchdowns, this year has been very active to this point.

According to the National Weather Service’s annual storm report data, Michigan already has 18 unofficial tornado reports this year. Compared to last year, that is only one short of 2023’s 12-month tornado total of 19. There have also been 47 severe hail sightings and 62 severe wind readings through nearly six and a half months.

This begs the question: what is causing this chaotic change? According to Ferris State professor of geography and certified storm spotter, Dr. Jennifer Johnson, this is due to multiple different factors including the position of the jet stream.

“In May of this year, (the jet stream) still had not retreated to its more typical summer location over Canada and was still well established over the United States,” Johnson said. “We had a mix of two important factors: it was already spring with a big temperature contrast and the collision zone between the two air masses was in the right spot in the jet stream to produce storms in Michigan. This pattern was quite persistent and was responsible for a number of the storms we had.”

Another factor, according to Johnson, has been an “usually strong and persistent high-pressure dome over the Gulf of Mexico.” The National Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, has measured the gulf’s surface temperature to be 3-6 degrees higher than its normal average. This change is subsequently affecting the air temperature, raising it to higher marks in the south and creating a more contrasting boundary between the north and south regions. 

“This has given the severe weather season some extra ‘oomph’,” Johnson said. “Not only do we have maximum contrast of air temperature along the frontal boundaries, but this year the warm air is extra warm, making the contrast even greater than usual.”

Based on upcoming conditions and climate models, the National Weather Service is predicting the severe weather season will begin to slow down soon. This will also include a raise in temperatures across the state and Midwest to Northeast region. 

“As Canada continues to warm up with the approach of summer, the contrast in temperature between the two air masses will lessen and it will reduce the chances of severe weather outbreaks,” Johnson said. “Additionally, the jet stream will at some point slow down and migrate northward into Canada, as it does every summer, which will keep the colder air from northern Canada and the Arctic from intruding down into the United States. This generally leads to a decrease in the intensity and frequency of severe weather outbreaks across the U.S., although there are still plenty of them that occur throughout the season.”

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