A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to hit West Michigan later this evening, with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible with this system.

This system is expected to initiate Thursday afternoon in parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Models have shown these storms will intensify and merge into a squall line of intense thunderstorms, showing a "bow-echo" shape as it enters the state sometime after 9:00 p.m. High instability, convective energy, and wind shear support the line’s development. The main uncertainty revolves around whether the cap layer will break, allowing more unstable air to rise and enabling the storm to grow.

According to the latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, some portions of Michigan are under a Level 3 "Enhanced Risk" for severe weather. Here’s the breakdown for the area, organized by risk level:

• Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5)
  • Baldwin, Big Rapids, Canadian Lakes, Cedar Springs, Fremont, Grand Rapids, Grant, Howard City, Lakeview, Morley, Newaygo, Remus, Stanton, Stanwood, and White Cloud
    • 30-44% chance of damaging winds
    • 30-44% chance of significant hail
    • 5-9% tornado risk
• Slight Risk (Level 2/5)
  • Alma, Barryton, Cadillac, Clare, Evart, Lake City, LeRoy, Harrison, Marion, McBain, and Mt. Pleasant
    • 15-29% chance of damaging winds
    • 15-29% chance of hail
    • 5-9% tornado risk

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html.

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