According to the Storm Prediction Center, West Michigan faces a risk of severe weather Saturday afternoon.
A mesoscale convective system is projected to cross Lake Michigan late Saturday morning, though its structure remains uncertain. Weather models show two distinct clusters potentially entering the state; however, potential morning destabilization and rapid development could combine these into one longer, organized squall line. If storms do form, they will be supported by deep-layer shear but may be depleted by lower temperatures.
Main concerns with this system will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall (up to one inch). Some hail and a spin-up tornado will be possible but will require a sequence of parameters to be met regarding more rotation and lift.
Storms are expected after noon Saturday and may linger until 8 p.m. Here’s the risk breakdown for parts of West Michigan:
- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5): Barryton, Big Rapids, Canadian Lakes, Fremont, Grand Rapids, Grant, Greenville, Howard City, Kent City, Lakeview, Mecosta, Morley, Mount Pleasant, Newaygo, Remus, Sheridan, Stanton, Stanwood, Weidman, and White Cloud
- 15% chance of damaging winds, 5% chance of hail, and 2% chance of tornadoes, per the Storm Prediction Center
- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5): Baldwin, Cadillac, Clare, Evart, Farwell, Harrison, Hersey, LeRoy, Luther, Marion, McBain, Reed City, and Tustin
- 5% chance of damaging winds, 5% chance of hail, and 2% chance of tornadoes, per the Storm Prediction Center
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